To generally estimate which party and candidate has the most followers and votes, organizations conduct what is known as an exit poll to predict election results.
They provide an overview, a trend and an idea of where the country’s mind is moving.
A few hours after voting concludes in the ongoing elections in Gujarat, Himachal and Delhi (MCD), the results of exit polls conducted by various organizations will be made public.
Here are the five most frequently asked questions about exit polls and their answers.
The 5 most frequently asked questions and answers about exit polls
1. Why is it called an exit poll?
Answer. True to its name, an exit poll is conducted immediately after a voter has exited the voting booth after casting their vote. The data collected from voters will help estimate which party/candidate is most likely to win the election.
2. How are exit polls carried out?
Answer. Exit polls in India are mainly conducted by media outlets in collaboration with other major organisations. One of the most common methods for conducting an exit poll is sampling. A sample is chosen from the smallest voting units of a constituency which may include the entire electorate and not just voters outside a booth covering parameters such as age, sex, caste, region, etc., and the day of voting. elections, at least one interviewer (from (the organization conducting the survey) is placed in each of them to estimate the result of the election. The interviewer visits in a planned and methodical manner the people who have already cast their vote to request an interview.
MCD exit poll: AAP 149-171; BJP 69-91; Cong 3-7; another 5-9. AAP 43%, BJP 35%, Cong 10% others 12%. AAP set to end 15 years of BJP rule in MCD #IndiaTodayExactPoll @AxisMyIndia survey
– Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep)
December 5, 2022
3. Are exit polls always accurate?
Answer. Exit polls, without a doubt, give us an estimated figure of how many voters have voted for which party or candidate. They provide an idea of where the election result will go.
Since the first exit polls were conducted in India in 1957, there have been occasions when some of them accurately anticipated the election result, while others did not. Exit polls are not 100% true sometimes, although what they can do is provide a comprehensive picture of an electorate and its political climate.
4. Why are exit polls controversial?
Answer. Since its introduction in 1957, exit polls have been surrounded by a number of controversies. It often comes to light that organizations conducting exit polls may be biased in their choice of language, question timing, methodology and sample size.
If certain reports are to be believed, organizations conducting exit polls may receive clandestine funding from political parties or their adversaries and may therefore not fully reflect the attitudes or views of the population. voter.
Voters are also known to frequently lie to pollsters.
In turn, this has an impact on the accuracy of the predictions, and if the predictions turn out to be false, there is little point in doing exit polls.
5. Has the Election Commission banned exit polls?
Answer. No, the Election Commission of India has not banned exit polls; However, there are restrictions on the dissemination of survey results.
The ECI says that in the 48 hours before the close of voting in each phase, television, radio channels, cable networks, websites and social media platforms must take precautions to ensure that the content of any program broadcast, broadcast, or displayed “does not contain any material, including opinions or appeals of participants, that could be construed as promoting or detrimental to the prospects” of any particular party or candidate.
It also says: “Attention is also drawn to Section 126A of the RP Act, 1951, which prohibits the conduct of exit polls and the dissemination of their results during the period mentioned therein, i.e. the time fixed for the start of the survey in the first phase and half an hour later. hour after the time set for the closing of voting in the last phase in all states.”
The ICE further stipulates that no media outlet, website or social media platform may broadcast the final election results before they are officially declared by the ICE.
Exit polls may not always be correct, but they have often proven to be a reliable indicator of the direction the Indian political system is taking.
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Source: ptivs2.edu.vn