Russia is reaching the position of the world’s leading wheat exporter. At the same time, Ukraine faces challenges that may lead to a significant decrease in its wheat shipments. Ukraine’s wheat exports are projected to more than halve from their previous highs, and wheat production will hit its lowest level in 11 years.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Russia’s record wheat export at 45.5 million tons (mt) in the year 2022-2023 (July-June cycle). In the previous three market years, Russia’s wheat export record was 33, 39.1 and 34.5 tons. With such growth in the last year, Russia has surpassed the record of the European Union, which held a record of 39.8 tons in the year 2019-2020.
Furthermore, Russia’s wheat exports are expected to reach a new high of 47.5 tons in the year 2023-2024. If this new high is reached, it would be a record that would surpass the records of the European Union, Australia, Argentina and Canada. This growth in Russian exports comes at the expense of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s wheat exports decreased from 21 tons in the year 2019-2020 to 16.8 tons in the year 2022-2023. Not to be missed, Ukraine’s wheat export records are expected to continue to decline to 10.5 tons in the next marketing year. The USDA has estimated that production in the country could also decline to 17.5 tons. If this happens, it would actually be the lowest record since 2012-2013.
Russia significantly exports its wheat production to North Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. Sure, the Black Sea Grains Initiative has helped Ukraine export 16.8 tons in the year 2022-2023, about 39 percent of its wheat traveled via the land route to Eastern Europe, instead from through corridors from the ports of Chornomorsk, Yuzhny. and Odessa. Ukrainian markets have shifted significantly toward Europe, primarily due to ease of shipping, according to the USDA. Previously, the main markets for Ukrainian wheat exports were North Africa and Asia.
The increase in Russian and world exports.
Russia’s huge wheat supplies have helped lower the price of wheat globally. Russian wheat is currently exported at a price of approximately $235 per ton. Months ago, the price was $275. If you try to compare the current price with that of the recent past, you will find a significant weakening of prices, reaching $310 six months ago and approximately $375 a year ago. For countries like India, relatively low wheat prices may seem like good news.
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Source: ptivs2.edu.vn